David Kang, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business, began his presentation by noting that Americans have lately been asking what’s become of the U.S.-South Korea alliance that once had the two countries marching in lockstep. This central question is usually accompanied by two others. Why do South Koreans place so much trust in North Korea? And why are they so ungrateful for American sacrifices during the Korean War?

But those are the wrong questions for Americans to ask themselves if they want to get useful answers. Gratitude and trust are both emotions, Kang continued, and the growing differences between the U.S. and ROK result from structural causes, not emotional ones.

The most important cause is regional. Though many analysts use nineteenth century Europe as a template for predicting the geopolitics of twenty-first century East Asia, Kang believes that the region’s future will resemble its own, pre-colonial past. China is steadily climbing back into its historical role as Asia’s predominant power, and Japan is being pushed to the periphery. South Korea is looking to establish a position for itself in the new order. This explains its supposed ingratitude. On a working level, China and Japan are both more important to South Korea than the U.S. is, thus it only makes sense Seoul would tend to its relationships with them, and its own regional interests, at the expense of its alliance with Washington.

South Korea’s relationship with North Korea, characterized in Washington as overly trusting, is another example of structural change. The U.S. remains in a Cold War mindset, concerned about the implications of North Korea’s military strength. South Koreans, however, have recognized that North Korea’s weakness, and potential instability, represents a greater threat than all its tanks and artillery. Thus their respective approaches to the North diverge. The U.S. counters its fears by trying to intimidate Pyongyang while South Korea counters the threat of instability by providing economic aid to the North that can bolster its state capacities.

If the U.S. were to come around to South Korea’s approach and embrace economic transformation in the North, Kang predicted the U.S.-ROK relationship would improve substantially. However, he doesn’t expect U.S. policy to become any more accommodating in the near future. Most likely the strained ties between Washington and Seoul that have endured in recent years will continue on course, without either a dramatic schism or recovery.

“In the short term,” Kang closed, “the way forward is more of the same.”