East Asia has many simmering geopolitical conflicts that could bubble over. At least in the short term, according to Ian Bremmer, president of global risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, however he doesn’t think that North Korea’s nuclear program is one of them.

The major story in Asia, Bremmer began, is China’s rise to regional power status just at the moment when Japan, stirring from its long economic torpor, is reasserting itself. The two giants are set on a collision course. The U.S. lacks the political will to broker an agreement between the two, and Asia lacks the E.U.-style international institutions that could restrain them. Bremmer said his firm believes there’s a 10- to 20-percent chance of a diplomatic crisis between the two nations so severe that it could result in a substantial flight of Japanese investment from China. Conflict could also break out over access to oil and gas reserves beneath the East Sea.

On the Korean Peninsula, North Korea remains a potentially destabilizing variable. However, Bremmer believes that in the near future, “from a market perspective, [the DPRK] is no longer a problem.” It’s possible to negotiate with North Korea, he stressed. Though he believes North Korea has made it difficult to reach consensus at the Six-Party Talks by dragging its feet and trying to manipulate South Korea and China, Kim Jong-il is not a risk taker in the vein of Saddam Hussein of Iraq or President Ahmadinejad of Iran. Given the right inducements, North Korea is very likely to step back from its nuclear program.

Unfortunately Bremmer has little hope that the U.S. will put any such inducements on the bargaining table. The Bush administration, preoccupied with Iraq, has essentially stopped trying to reach a breakthrough at the talks and beneath its rhetoric, seems content with the status quo.

Bremmer closed his presentation by talking about some over-hyped Asian trouble spots, as well as some under appreciated ones. Taiwan-China issues frequently captivate the news media, however there’s less to the story than there seems. Bremmer predicted that eventually the island nation will be peacefully integrated with the People’s Republic. On the flip side, China’s relationship with India is fraught with contentious issues, and few outsiders appreciate the immense social strain China will come under when, starting in 2009, its labor force begins to shrink.

with

Ian Bremmer
President, Eurasia Group 

Thursday, February 16, 2006