The 2006 midterm elections transformed the political dynamic in Washington and in the near term, they may also shake-up the U.S. government's approach to North Korea. A change from the current standoff would be welcome, and the panelists convened by The Korea Society and the Asia Society-including Don Zagoria, trustee for the National Committee on American Foreign Policy; Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council; Gerald Curtis, professor of Political Science at Columbia University and a top U.S. expert on Japan; Evans Revere, a Korea expert at the State Department and a Cyrus Vance Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Aleksandr Ilitchev, a senior political affairs officer at the United Nations-saw signs that Washington's approach may soon change. (co-sponsored by the Asia Society)





Tuesday, November 21, 2006

About the speakers

Though the last six years have seen relations between the U.S. and North Korea reach new lows, Don Zagoria is cautiously optimistic. Coming to the brink of disaster has likely sobered both sides, and as hawks in the Bush administration have weakened, hints have emerged that the U.S. may offer North Korea the "package deal" of incentives it's long sought at the next round of Six-Party Talks.

Leon Sigal saw the renewal of the Six-Party Talks as a positive sign, but warned of long negotiations. "When the Six-Party Talks resume, the most to expect is a commitment to the September 19 principles," said Sigal, referring to the joint statement issued at the end of the last round of negotiations. Sigal said that to make real progress, the negotiations would require reciprocity from the U.S. which has so far spurned the North's conciliatory gestures.

Gerald Curtis discussed the prospects for Japan-DPRK relations. In short, those prospects were gloomy, and have gotten darker since the swearing in of Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe. Japanese public opinion is convinced that North Korea represents the greatest threat to their security since the end of World War II, and politicians find it difficult to get past the highly emotional abductee issue when crafting policy. Furthermore, Abe is much more hawkish on North Korea than Koizumi. However, Curtis added, in the final equation, Japan isn't a major player on the nuclear issue and it will probably fall behind the U.S. line.

Evans Revere remarked on the "incredible mobilization of world sentiment against the DPRK's nuclear test" that has bought about a new level of consensus on the issue. China has changed its position acutely, voting twice at the UN last year to condemn its treaty ally. None of this unanimity will tip over the North Korean regime, but it has already led to the North's commitment to return to the Six-Party Talks.

The rest of the world, as collected in the United Nations, is glad to see the process reinvigorated. When the formal negotiations resume, said Aleksandr Ilitchev in closing, the UN will be glad to help however it can.