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Shaping the Future of North Korea: Signs of Impending Change? Shaping the Future of North Korea: Signs of Impending Change?


The 2006 midterm elections transformed the political dynamic in Washington and in the near term, they may also shake-up the U.S. government's approach to North Korea. A change from the current standoff would be welcome, and the panelists convened by The Korea Society and the Asia Society-including Don Zagoria, trustee for the National Committee on American Foreign Policy; Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council; Gerald Curtis, professor of Political Science at Columbia University and a top U.S. expert on Japan; Evans Revere, a Korea expert at the State Department and a Cyrus Vance Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Aleksandr Ilitchev, a senior political affairs officer at the United Nations-saw signs that Washington's approach may soon change. (co-sponsored by the Asia Society) Podcast Available!





Tuesday, November 21, 2006

About the speakers



Shaping the Future of North Korea: Signs of Impending Change?

with

Don Zagoria
Trustee, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy

Leon Sigal
Director, The Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, The Social Science Research Council

Gerald Curtis
Professor, Political Science, Columbia University 

Evans Revere
Korea expert, The State Department 
Cyrus Vance Fellow, The Council on Foreign Relations

Aleksandr Ilitchev
Senior Political Affairs Officer, United Nations

Moderated by

Donald P. Gregg
President and Chairman, The Korea Society

Though the last six years have seen relations between the U.S. and North Korea reach new lows, Don Zagoria is cautiously optimistic. Coming to the brink of disaster has likely sobered both sides, and as hawks in the Bush administration have weakened, hints have emerged that the U.S. may offer North Korea the "package deal" of incentives it's long sought at the next round of Six-Party Talks.

Leon Sigal saw the renewal of the Six-Party Talks as a positive sign, but warned of long negotiations. "When the Six-Party Talks resume, the most to expect is a commitment to the September 19 principles," said Sigal, referring to the joint statement issued at the end of the last round of negotiations. Sigal said that to make real progress, the negotiations would require reciprocity from the U.S. which has so far spurned the North's conciliatory gestures.

Gerald Curtis discussed the prospects for Japan-DPRK relations. In short, those prospects were gloomy, and have gotten darker since the swearing in of Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe. Japanese public opinion is convinced that North Korea represents the greatest threat to their security since the end of World War II, and politicians find it difficult to get past the highly emotional abductee issue when crafting policy. Furthermore, Abe is much more hawkish on North Korea than Koizumi. However, Curtis added, in the final equation, Japan isn't a major player on the nuclear issue and it will probably fall behind the U.S. line.

Evans Revere remarked on the "incredible mobilization of world sentiment against the DPRK's nuclear test" that has bought about a new level of consensus on the issue. China has changed its position acutely, voting twice at the UN last year to condemn its treaty ally. None of this unanimity will tip over the North Korean regime, but it has already led to the North's commitment to return to the Six-Party Talks.

The rest of the world, as collected in the United Nations, is glad to see the process reinvigorated. When the formal negotiations resume, said Aleksandr Ilitchev in closing, the UN will be glad to help however it can.

 

Shaping the Future of North Korea: Signs of Impending Change? Shaping the Future of North Korea: Signs of Impending Change?


The 2006 midterm elections transformed the political dynamic in Washington and in the near term, they may also shake-up the U.S. government's approach to North Korea. A change from the current standoff would be welcome, and the panelists convened by The Korea Society and the Asia Society-including Don Zagoria, trustee for the National Committee on American Foreign Policy; Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council; Gerald Curtis, professor of Political Science at Columbia University and a top U.S. expert on Japan; Evans Revere, a Korea expert at the State Department and a Cyrus Vance Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Aleksandr Ilitchev, a senior political affairs officer at the United Nations-saw signs that Washington's approach may soon change. (co-sponsored by the Asia Society) Podcast Available!





Tuesday, November 21, 2006

About the speakers



Shaping the Future of North Korea: Signs of Impending Change?

with

Don Zagoria
Trustee, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy

Leon Sigal
Director, The Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, The Social Science Research Council

Gerald Curtis
Professor, Political Science, Columbia University 

Evans Revere
Korea expert, The State Department 
Cyrus Vance Fellow, The Council on Foreign Relations

Aleksandr Ilitchev
Senior Political Affairs Officer, United Nations

Moderated by

Donald P. Gregg
President and Chairman, The Korea Society

Though the last six years have seen relations between the U.S. and North Korea reach new lows, Don Zagoria is cautiously optimistic. Coming to the brink of disaster has likely sobered both sides, and as hawks in the Bush administration have weakened, hints have emerged that the U.S. may offer North Korea the "package deal" of incentives it's long sought at the next round of Six-Party Talks.

Leon Sigal saw the renewal of the Six-Party Talks as a positive sign, but warned of long negotiations. "When the Six-Party Talks resume, the most to expect is a commitment to the September 19 principles," said Sigal, referring to the joint statement issued at the end of the last round of negotiations. Sigal said that to make real progress, the negotiations would require reciprocity from the U.S. which has so far spurned the North's conciliatory gestures.

Gerald Curtis discussed the prospects for Japan-DPRK relations. In short, those prospects were gloomy, and have gotten darker since the swearing in of Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe. Japanese public opinion is convinced that North Korea represents the greatest threat to their security since the end of World War II, and politicians find it difficult to get past the highly emotional abductee issue when crafting policy. Furthermore, Abe is much more hawkish on North Korea than Koizumi. However, Curtis added, in the final equation, Japan isn't a major player on the nuclear issue and it will probably fall behind the U.S. line.

Evans Revere remarked on the "incredible mobilization of world sentiment against the DPRK's nuclear test" that has bought about a new level of consensus on the issue. China has changed its position acutely, voting twice at the UN last year to condemn its treaty ally. None of this unanimity will tip over the North Korean regime, but it has already led to the North's commitment to return to the Six-Party Talks.

The rest of the world, as collected in the United Nations, is glad to see the process reinvigorated. When the formal negotiations resume, said Aleksandr Ilitchev in closing, the UN will be glad to help however it can.

 

Video and Audio Podcasts





 



Video and Audio Podcast Recording of Speakers
(from left to right)

Audio MP3 {mgmediabot}images/stories/video_audio/2006-11-21-CI-zagoria.flv|true(Flash Video)|320|240{/mgmediabot} Don Zagoria

 

Audio MP3 {mgmediabot}images/stories/video_audio/2006-11-21-CI-sigal.flv|true(Flash Video)|320|240{/mgmediabot} Leon Sigal

 

Audio MP3 {mgmediabot}images/stories/video_audio/2006-11-21-CI-curtis.flv|true(Flash Video)|320|240{/mgmediabot} Gerald Curtis

 

Audio MP3 {mgmediabot}images/stories/video_audio/2006-11-21-CI-revere.flv|true(Flash Video)|320|240{/mgmediabot} Evans Revere

 

Audio MP3 {mgmediabot}images/stories/video_audio/2006-11-21-CI-ilitchev.flv|true(Flash Video)|320|240{/mgmediabot} Aleksandr Ilitchev

 

 

 

Speaker Bios

 

About the Panelists

Donald S. Zagoria
Trustee
National Committee on American Foreign Policy

Donald S. Zagoria
serves as a trustee for the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and supervises three track-two projects on U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, the North Korean nuclear issue and U.S. relations with the ROK and Japan. Zagoria has been writing and lecturing on international politics for 35 years, with a particular focus on relations among the four major powers in the Asia-Pacific region: the United States, Russia, China and Japan. In addition to five books on the subject, he is the author of more than 200 articles. During the Carter Administration, Zagoria served as a consultant to both the National Security Council and the East Asia Bureau of the State Department. He has frequently been called as an expert witness on Asia by the United States Congress. Zagoria teaches courses on American foreign policy and the international relations of East Asia at Hunter College. Zagoria was born in 1928. He received his BA from Rutgers University, and his MA and Ph.D. from Columbia University. He and his wife Janet, also a Ph.D. in political science, have one son, Adam.

Leon V. Sigal
Director
Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project

Leon V. Sigal
is director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York. His book, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, published by Princeton University Press, was one of five nominees for the Lionel Gelber Prize as the most outstanding book on international relations for 1997-1998 and was named the 1998 book of distinction by the American Academy of Diplomacy. Sigal was a member of the editorial board of The New York Times from 1989-1995. He served in the Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, in 1979 as International Affairs Fellow and in 1980 as Special Assistant to the Director. Sigal was also a Rockefeller Younger Scholar in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in 1972-1974 and a guest scholar there in 1981-1984. From 1974-1989 he was a professor of government at Wesleyan University. He was an adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs from 1985-1989 and from 1996-2000, and a visiting lecturer at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School in 1988 and 2000. His most recent book, Negotiating Minefields: The Landmines Ban in American Politics, was published in 2006.

Gerald Curtis
Burgess Professor of International Affairs
Columbia University

Gerald Curtis
is Burgess Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and former Director of Columbia's Weatherhead East Asian Institute. Professor Curtis is the author of The Logic of Japanese Politics and numerous other books and articles on Japanese politics, government, and foreign policy and U.S.-Japan relations. He currently divides his time between Columbia University and Tokyo where he is active as a columnist, speaker and writer on Japanese domestic affairs and international relations and a senior fellow at the International Institute of Economic Studies. Professor Curtis has held appointments at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London; the College de France, Paris; the Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore; and in Tokyo at Keio and Tokyo University, the Research Institute for Economy, Trade and Industry and the Graduate Research Institute for Policy Studies. He is the recipient of the Chunichi Shimbun Special Achievement Award and the Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. In 2002 he received the prestigious Japan Foundation Award and in 2004 he was awarded the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star by the Emperor of Japan. Professor Curtis is a member of the board of the US-Japan Foundation and advisor and consultant to numerous public and private organizations in the United States and Japan.

Evans Revere
Cyrus Vance Fellow in Diplomatic Studies
Council on Foreign Relations

Evans Revere, a long-time Korea expert, is currently on a State Department assignment to the Council on Foreign Relations, where he is Cyrus Vance Fellow in Diplomatic Studies. He is presently directing a Council-sponsored task force on U.S.-China relations. In addition to working on Korean and Japanese issues at the Council, Revere also served as project director for a Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward China. During his 26-year career with the State Department, Revere has served in all of the major capitals of Northeast Asia, visited Pyongyang numerous times, including with then-presidential envoy William Perry. He speaks fluent Korean, Japanese and Chinese. Revere is a graduate of Princeton University and is a three-time winner of the Department of State's Superior Honor Award.

Aleksandr Ilitchev
Senior Political Affairs Officer
United Nations

Aleksandr Ilitchev has been the senior officer with the Division of Asia and the Pacific in the Department of Political Affairs at theUnited Nations Headquarters in New York since February 1997. A career diplomat, Ilitchev graduated from the Moscow State Institute for International Relations with master’s degrees in internationalrelations and journalism in 1974. He served with the RussianForeign Ministry from 1974 to 1992, with overseas assignments in Syria, Washington, DC and New York. He also served as a personal assistant to Foreign Minister Schevardnadze prior to joining the UN Department of Political Affairs in October 1992. As the team leader for Northeast Asia and the Pacific, Mr. Ilitchev accompanied thesecretary-general on his visits to Asia between 1999 and 2006 and acted as principal political advisor to the personal envoy of the secretary-general for the Korean Peninsula from 2003 to 2005. He has made several visits to the region in a personal capacity as well as participated in various forums on Korean affairs and conflict prevention and resolution. Ilitchev has also conducted Ph.D. research in affiliation with the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC and the U.S.A. and Canada Institute in Moscow.

 

Program Info and Letter of Introduction

 

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

3:00 PM-3:30 PM ♦ Registration and Reception
3:30 PM-3:40 PM ♦ Welcome
3:40 PM-6:00 PM ♦ Presentations and Q&A

The Korea Society, 950 Third Avenue, Eighth Floor, New York City
(Building entrance on SW corner of Third Avenue and 57th Street)

Moderator:
Donald P. Gregg
President and Chairman
The Korea Society

I have listened quite carefully to the U.S. mid-term election results, and a wide variety of commentaries about what they mean. I have not heard the words "North Korea" or "Asia" mentioned once. This should not come as too much of a surprise, given the prominence of the election-driving issues: Iraq, incompetence, corruption and former Secretary Rumsfeld.

Once the post-election dust settles, we at The Korea Society and the Asia Society believe that the elections will have an impact on U.S. policy toward the Korean Peninsula and the Six-Party Talks. And so we are putting on a jointly sponsored program to discuss possible policy permutations in the countries concerned.

Don Zagoria will discuss his involvement in track two efforts with the North Koreans and the other parties over the past four years with a focus on U.S. foreign policy. Lee Sigal will offer an assessment of North Korea's receptivity to policy changes. Jerry Curtis will focus attention on Japan's role and Evans Revere will enlighten us on the roles being played by South Korea and the U.S.

This is a great panel of speakers, and I hope we will have a full house to greet them. Please join us on November 21.

Don Gregg

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