When Alexander Vorontsov, head of the section for Korean Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, hears a question about North Korea’s economic reforms, it’s usually a variation of this: Why hasn’t the DPRK moved more quickly to imitate the Chinese and Vietnamese liberalization models?

This question leaves the impression that the DPRK is doing little in the way of reform. Nothing could be farther from the truth, however, Vorontsov said. Last year North Korea reported a rice harvest of 4.4 million tons, compared to just 3 million tons five years ago. The government has embraced the local farmers’ markets that sprung up during the height of the food crisis in the mid-1990s, even opening them up to foreign visitors. Free enterprise zones at Kaesong and Mount Kumgang are flourishing, and Kim Jong-il has taken an active interest in Russia’s free market reform process. Compared to the rapid liberalization that China and Vietnam have undergone, this may not appear to be much. Compared to the DPRK’s economic order of just a few years ago, it’s a world of difference.

To the extent that North Korea has approached market reforms differently than its Asian neighbors, it’s because local conditions necessitate it. When China’s economic reforms began in the late 1970s and early 1980s, they began in the rural, agricultural areas where most of the population lived and then moved into the cities. As North Korea’s population is predominantly urban, Vorontsov pointed out, the Chinese model can’t simply be copied. In addition both China and Vietnam were secure from external threats when they began their reforms. North Korea, still facing off against U.S. troops in South Korea, is not.

North Korea’s progress towards more open markets, and perhaps a more open society, will continue at a measured pace, Vorontsov added. North Korean officials have always stressed that the process will be gradual. The government has already started to reevaluate its course in light of widening income disparities, which it fears might undermine its power. Most countries in the region, however, realize that the process will continue and are working to take advantage of it.

Wednesday, March 8, 2006

About the Speaker

Alexander Vorontsov heads the Section for Korean Studies in the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. He also holds several other educational posts, including professor at the Russian Federation Military Science Academy, leading researcher at the International Center for Korea Studies of Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University, and visiting professor at the Institute for Asian Studies at the Osaka University of Economy and Law in Japan. Vorontsov also served in the Russian Federation Foreign Ministry as second secretary in the P’yongyang Embassy from 2000 to 2002. A specialist in Asia-Pacific international relations and contemporary Korean issues, Vorontsov has presented numerous papers at international conferences around the world, including both South and North Korea, Japan, Germany and Paris. He studied at Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University, Pyongyang University, and the Institute of Oriental Studies at the USSR Academy of Sciences, where he earned a Ph.D. in history.