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Category: Geopolitical Affairs

Assessing North Korea’s
Developing Nuclear Program

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Program Brief

Assessing North Korea’s Developing Nuclear Program

In our discussion assessing the latest developments of North Korea’s nuclear program, Open Nuclear Network (ONN) Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman challenged conventional wisdoms regarding the DPRK’s nuclear capabilities and described how the Kim Regime balances its fissile material supply against strategic weaponization demands.

This program was made possible by the generous support of the Korea Foundation and The Korea Society’s individual and corporate members.

Event Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026

Host Organizations: The Korea Society

Speakers:

• Sarah Laderman, Senior Analyst, Open Nuclear Network, a PAX sapiens programme

• In conversation with Jonathan Corrado, Policy Director, The Korea Society

Key Takeaways

1. North Korea Is Shifting Toward Routinized Force Development with a Projected Arsenal Expansion by 2034

Laderman noted that by the end of 2034, North Korea could produce between 23–47 strategic warheads using plutonium and 173–228 tactical warheads using highly enriched uranium. North Korea’s ambitious goals point to a posture that could exceed defensive needs. A number of factors, both technical and strategic, will affect the overall production. While uranium supplies remain plentiful for tactical weapons, plutonium remains highly prized for strategic miniaturization and sophisticated designs like multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).

2. Remote Monitoring Has Advanced Through New Technology, but Weaponization Remains a Distinct “Black Box”

Advances in open-source intelligence (OSINT) have fundamentally transformed how we monitor North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, yet a critical verification gap remains. While commercial satellite technologies can now easily bypass weather and camouflage—using advanced radar to pierce cloud cover, thermal imagery to detect active reactor operations, and AI to map vehicle traffic patterns—this transparency stops short of the final weaponization phase. The resulting intelligence picture is highly uneven: the international community can track large, fixed infrastructures, but the actual assembly of nuclear warheads remains entirely opaque. Because the regime effectively utilizes nondescript buildings and extensive underground mountain tunnels, advanced satellite sweeps have failed to locate a single definitive site for plutonium or uranium pit production. Despite better visibility through open source tools overall, Pyongyang’s most valuable strategic assets remain successfully hidden from foreign observation.

3. To Take Advantage of Open Source Monitoring Tools, a Future Arms Control Policy Could Prioritize Plutonium Over Uranium

Laderman highlighted a core policy dilemma: some of the most strategically valuable assets to eliminate are the hardest to remotely verify. Because on-the-ground international inspections have not occurred in nearly two decades, any realistic opening salvo for an arms control agreement or selective freeze must rely on remote observation. According to Laderman, policymakers could therefore focus initial negotiation priorities on freezing plutonium production rather than highly enriched uranium (HEU). While HEU enrichment efficiency and locations are easily hidden, plutonium relies on distinct, fixed reactor profiles and reprocessing infrastructure, making it the most practical, monitorable, and strategically impactful target for containment.

About the Speaker:

Sarah Laderman is a Senior Analyst for Open Nuclear Network, a PAX sapiens programme, in Vienna, Austria, where she focuses on open-source and technical analyses of nuclear programmes. She is currently focused on the DPRK’s nuclear weaponisation capabilities. She has previously worked at the International Atomic Energy Agency, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the US Department of Defense. Sarah received her MSc in Nuclear Engineering and Masters in Public Policy from the University of California, Berkeley, and her BSc in Nuclear Science and Engineering and Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She is currently a doctoral candidate in Political Science at the University of Vienna.

The Korea Society announces Dr. Katrin Katz as the inaugural Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow

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The Korea Society announces Dr. Katrin Katz as the inaugural Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow

The Korea Society announces Dr. Katrin Katz as the inaugural Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow

The Korea Society is proud to announce Dr. Katrin Katz as the inaugural Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow. Dr. Katz was the inaugural recipient of the Sherman Family Korea Emerging Scholar Award in 2017, and has served as an expert speaker for the Kim Koo Professional Series and Korea Society public policy programs. With a wealth of practical policy experience and academic knowledge, Dr. Katz helps the Society to set a high bar as the very first Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow. We warmly welcome her to our team.

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Dr. Katrin Fraser Katz is The Korea Society’s inaugural Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow. Dr. Katz is a former director for Japan, Korea, and oceanic affairs on the staff of the National Security Council, where she served from 2007 to 2008. Previously, she was a special assistant to the assistant secretary for international organization affairs at the U.S. Department of State and an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. She currently also serves as an Adjunct Fellow (Non-resident) in the Office of the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. She was previously an Adjunct Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University and has also taught at Georgetown University. In 2017, Dr. Katz received the inaugural Sherman Family Korea Emerging Scholar Lecture Series award from The Korea Society. Dr. Katz’s research, which has been supported by grants from the Korea Foundation and the Horowitz Foundation for Social Policy, explores the interplay of cooperation and conflict in East Asia’s political, economic, and security dynamics. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from Northwestern University; a master’s degree in East Asian and international security studies from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, where she was awarded the John C. Perry Scholarship for East Asian Studies; and a bachelor’s degree, magna cum laude, in international relations and Japanese from the University of Pennsylvania.

Privileged but Powerless:

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Program Brief

Privileged but Powerless

Dr. Jieun Baek described the complex psychological drivers impacting North Korea’s 100,000 political elites in a discussion of her new book, Privileged but Powerless: How North Korean Elite Grievances Reveal the Regime’s Greatest Weakness. Mobilizing hundreds of hours of interviews with high-level escapees, Dr. Baek argued that the elites’ performative loyalty is born out of fear, obscuring a critical vulnerability within the regime’s core support base. Ultimately, the very officials who seem most invested in preserving North Korea’s status quo may become its most dangerous disruptors—driven not by ideology, but by simmering resentment and vanishing alternatives.

This program was hosted by the Korea Society as part of the Kim Koo Professional Series.

Event Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026

Host Organizations: The Korea Society

Speakers:

• Jieun Baek, adjunct faculty, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford; nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council; author of Privileged but Powerless

• In conversation with Jonathan Corrado, Policy Director, The Korea Society

Key Takeaways

1. Performative Loyalty as a Mask for Survival

Dr. Baek explained that North Korea’s elite face severe cognitive dissonance, masking deep internal doubts with outward performative loyalty. This hyper-vigilant behavior represents an extreme case of preference falsification, where the most outwardly compliant individuals are actually masking a volatile vulnerability born of fear and self-preservation. To handle the immense mental burden of maintaining this cognitive dissonance, some embrace escapist vices. Additionally, because expressing anger toward Kim Jong-un is fatal, elites psychologically cope with systemic failures by shifting the blame downward, venting their frustrations onto mid-ranking managers instead.

2. The Continuum of Action

According to Dr. Baek, when confronted with their grievances, North Korean political elites operate along a strict behavioral continuum ranging from passive compliance to radical change. The most common and rational choice for individual self-preservation is to simply do nothing and maintain the status quo, which can be accompanied by small acts of adjustment that introduce micro-variations into their daily lives while they maintain their required performative loyalty. For those who decide the pressure is completely intolerable, exit via defection provides a definitive escape, a phenomenon that has increased under Kim Jong-un’s regime. The most distant and difficult choice on the spectrum is to push for reform by attempting to lobby for incremental policy or economic changes from within, though this option remains the furthest from practical reality.

3. Structural Barriers to Collective Action and Individual Survival Tactics

Dr. Baek addressed why covert coups or mass uprisings fail to materialize, pointing to the regime’s engineering of total social atomization, which creates a pervasive culture of mutual distrust where elites never know who is incentivized to report on them. Because collective action is functionally impossible, she noted that the most rational choice for an elite member is to maintain the status quo or intentionally aim for a middle-ground professional tier. This “sweet spot” position is successful enough to provide foreign currency and market luxuries for their families, but quiet enough to avoid shining too brightly and attracting unwanted attention from ambitious rivals.

The book is available for purchase here

About the Speaker:

Jieun Baek is an adjunct faculty member at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. She is the author of North Korea’s Hidden Revolution and Privileged but Powerless, and researches elite discontent and regime instability in authoritarian states, particularly North Korea and Burma.

America’s Taiwan Dilemma:

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Program Brief

America’s Taiwan Dilemma

During a discussion regarding his newest book, America’s Taiwan Dilemma: Allies’ Reactions and the Stakes for US Reputation, Mark Christopher argued that Washington policymakers often project their own assumptions onto allies. For instance, U.S. officials believe that allies demand a military defense of Taiwan to preserve America’s reputation. However, through interviews with over 100 regional experts, Christopher challenged this narrative by detailing how South Korea, Japan, and Australia actually perceive Taiwan conflict risks and the reliability of US security commitments.

This program was hosted by the Korea Society as part of the Kim Koo Professional Series.

Event Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026

Host Organizations: The Korea Society

Speakers:

• Mark Christopher, independent risk consultant; nonresident fellow, Taiwan Security Monitor; author of America’s Taiwan Dilemma

• Moderated by Jonathan Corrado, Policy Director, The Korea Society

Key Takeaways

1. Reliability Matters More Than Reputation

Christopher observed that while U.S. policymakers prioritize defending Taiwan to preserve a “reputation” for resolve, regional allies focus primarily on “reliability.” He defines reputation as a backward-looking assessment of past actions, whereas reliability is a forward-looking measure based on current military capability. Allies fear that if a U.S. intervention in Taiwan exhausts American military resources or political will, Washington may become unable to fulfill specific treaty obligations to Japan or South Korea. U.S. involvement in Taiwan may actually weaken alliance reliability if it leaves the U.S. military less capable of providing protection elsewhere.

2. Regional “Realpolitik” and the Lack of Alternatives

Christopher’s research suggests that if China initiates a conflict, America’s allies will likely be pushed closer to the United States regardless of the immediate outcome. Interviewees described a stark power reality: allied nations like Japan and Korea do not wish to acquiesce to Chinese regional hegemony, but lack the individual capability to hold off China. Without a viable alternative, allies are left with no realistic choice but to maintain and strengthen the U.S. alliance, even if a Taiwan contingency results in anger or mistrust toward Washington.

3. South Korea’s Unique “Shrimp among Whales” Dilemma

Unlike Japan or Australia, South Korea does not view Taiwan as a core national security imperative because it faces the existential threat of North Korea. Experts in Seoul expressed concern that a Taiwan conflict would invite North Korean aggression or trigger Chinese economic and military retaliation on the Peninsula. Consequently, Seoul will likely “thread the needle,” seeking to maintain its alliance with the U.S. while avoiding direct combat operations in Taiwan to ensure its long-term coexistence with its permanent neighbor in close geographical proximity, China.

The book is available for sale here

Use the coupon code SAVE20 for a 20% discount on print editions.

About the Speaker:

Mark A. Christopher is an independent risk consultant and a nonresident fellow at the Taiwan Security Monitor. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the Georgetown School of Foreign Service and an MPA from the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. He previously studied at Peking University, Nanjing University, and Taiwan National Chengchi University. His writing has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief, Defense One, and the Wall Street Journal.

Korean Messiah

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Program Brief

Korean Messiah

In the launch event for Korean Messiah, Wall Street Journal China Bureau Chief Jonathan Cheng challenged conventional thinking around North Korea and described the surprising, enduring influence of American Presbyterian Christianity on Kim Il Sung’s cult of personality.

This program was hosted in collaboration with The Center for Korean Research at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University.

Event Date: Monday, April 13, 2026

Host Organizations: The Korea Society; The Center for Korean Research at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University

Speakers:

• Jonathan Cheng, China Bureau Chief, The Wall Street Journal; author of Korean Messiah

• Barbara Demick, author of Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea (discussant)

• Moderated by Jonathan Corrado, Policy Director, The Korea Society

Key Takeaways

1. Pyongyang’s Religious History as the “Jerusalem of the East”

Cheng revealed that before Pyongyang became the capital of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), it was the epicenter of Christian missionary activity in Asia. Kim Il Sung was born and raised in a deeply religious environment, even serving as a Sunday school teacher and an organist in the church.

2. Kim Il Sung Utilized Elements of His Religious Upbringing to Build His Personality Cult

Cheng argued that although Kim Il Sung eventually became hostile toward organized religion, he was fundamentally shaped by his childhood in the church. The regime effectively repurposed Christian mythology, supernatural narratives, and organizational structures—such as mass study halls—to establish a personality cult that portrays the Kim family as messianic, divine figures to whom the population must show absolute devotion.

3. Historical Insights into the North Korean Regime’s “Otherness”

Both Cheng and author Barbara Demick, who joined for the conversation, emphasized that North Korea is often viewed as a hermetically sealed, incomprehensible “other.” However, by examining the historical roots—including the influence of American missionaries and the movement of people in Manchuria—the book demonstrates that the North Korean state is not a vacuum. It is a product of its history and global influences, highlighting the importance of understanding these origins to grasp the reality of life for the 25 million people living there today.

This program is co-hosted by The Center for Korean Research at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University.

About the Speakers:

Photo credit: Gilles Sabrie
Jonathan Cheng is the China bureau chief for The Wall Street Journal, and was previously the Korea bureau chief, running coverage of the Korean peninsula, including politics and society in both North and South Korea. A native of Toronto, he lives in Beijing. He has traveled to North Korea twice.
Barbara Demick is author of Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea and Logavina Street: Life and Death in a Sarajevo Neighborhood and the recently released Eat the Buddha: Life and Death in a Tibetan Town, published by Random House in July 2020. She was bureau chief for the Los Angeles Times in Beijing and Seoul, and previously reported from the Middle East and Balkans for the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Spotlight: Resources on Korea and U.S.-Korea Relations

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Join us for a virtual tour of archival resources about Korea and U.S.-Korea relations available for virtual and U.S.-based researchers. This discussion highlights a diverse array of both longstanding and emerging collections, providing a wide survey of available historical resources. How can educators, researchers, historians, writers, and students best take advantage of this treasure trove of materials? What stories await and what impact can they have? What are some tips and tricks from librarians, center directors, and archivists?

Participating resource centers include: the new Van Fleet Digital Archive, The University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for East Asian Studies U.S.-Korean Relations Collection, The Library of Congress Korean Collection, and The Harry S. Truman Library and Museum. This program is jointly produced by the Policy and the Education teams. Featuring: Dr. David Fields, Associate Director of the Center for East Asian Studies at University of Wisconsin-Madison, Joe McChristian, Jr. President of The Van Fleet Foundation, Dr. Sam Rushay, Supervisory Archivist at the Harry S. Truman Library and Museum, and Dr. Elli Kim, Korea Reference Librarian Asian Division at The Library of Congress.

This program is made possible by the generous support of the Korea Foundation and our individual and corporate members.

 

Spotlight: Resources on Korea and US-Korea Relations

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 | 8 AM (EDT)

 

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CollectionsSpeakers

 

The University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for East Asian Studies: U.S.-Korean Relations Collection

This collection contains a digital facsimile of records held by the United States National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) related to relations between the United States and the Korean peninsula, 1882-1963. Most of the records in this collection come from Record Group 59, the Central Files of the United States Department of State, but Record Groups 43 and 333 are also represented. The records in this collection were selected on the basis that they had already been microfilmed by NARA and so could be digitized efficiently. While some of these records have been available at major universities on microfilm for decades, the goal of this collection was to make all of NARA’s Korea-related microfilm publications available in one place, and to all interested researchers, regardless of whether they had access to a major research library.

 

The Van Fleet Digital Archive

General James Alward Van Fleet was the Commander of all Allied Ground Forces in the Korean War, 14 April 1951 – 12 February 1953. Korea honors him as the Father of the Korea Military Academy and the Father of the Republic of Korea Army. He was a Founder & first President of the Korea Society. He loved Korea as his second home until his death at the age of 100 in 1992.

Throughout his life, General Van Fleet kept extensive personal records of correspondence, documents, photos and memorabilia, all of which he donated to the George C. Marshall Foundation. The collection of some 150,000 documents and several thousand photos occupies more than 80 feet of shelf space in their vaults. 

The Van Fleet Foundation has just completed a project to digitize this entire archive. It is now freely accessible over the Internet to anyone in the World for research at https://vanfleetfoundation.org/archive/#search.

We have developed proprietary artificial intelligence systems for both the storage of digital files and for the free form search and retrieval of information.

Queries can be submitted in English or in Korean. Answers to queries will be provided as a summary of available information with an attached bibliography of the original source files for the answer, ranked in order of relevance to the query. Queries in English will receive a summary answer in English. Those in Korean will get a summary answer in Korean. Source documents will be in their original languages. They can be downloaded and then translated.

 

The Library of Congress Korean Collection

The systematic collection of Korean materials at the Library of Congress began in earnest with the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. Despite this relatively late start, the Library’s Korean collection is now the largest and most comprehensive outside of East Asia. The collection primarily comprises publications from the 20th century to the present but also holds a number of valuable pre–20th century publications in traditional formats. It covers all subject areas, from the arts and humanities to the social and natural sciences, and also includes Korean diaspora publications from around the world. The Library’s commitment to acquiring materials from North Korea has resulted in an internationally recognized collection that has served as a vital resource for researchers from various disciplines.

 

The Harry S. Truman Library and Museum

Harry Truman donated his Presidential papers to the American people to be preserved at the Truman Library. He envisioned this Library as a place where people of all ages could study the American Presidency and government. The Library’s collections continue to grow, with new acquisitions regularly added to the holdings. Researchers, curators, educators and others use materials including original documents, artifacts, films, and audio recordings to educate the public about the life and times of Harry Truman and the issues that shaped his presidency. Digital collections include: “Prelude to Conflict: United States Policy Toward Korea, 1945-1950.” This collection contains documents related to the relationship between the United States and Korea, and what became known as South Korea, before the outbreak of the Korean War. Supporting materials include photographs and oral history transcripts. It also includes: The Korean War and Its Origins, The Korean War: The Reaction of the United States to Chinese Intervention, December 1950, and The Korean War: President Truman’s Dismissal of General Douglas MacArthur.

 

 
 

Dr. David Fields is Associate Director of the Center for East Asian Studies at University of Wisconsin-Madison. He earned his PhD in history at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, specializing in US-Korean relations. He is the author of Foreign Friends: Syngman Rhee, American Exceptionalism, and the Division of Korea and the editor of The Diary of Syngman Rhee, 1904–34, 1944,  published by the National Museum of Korean Contemporary History. Since 2015, he has been the book review editor of the Journal of American-East Asian Relations. He has been published in the Washington Post, North Korea Review, Journal of American-East Asian Relations, SinoNK.com, Transactions of the Royal Asiatic Society-Korea Branch, and in the Working Papers Series of the Cold War International History Project. His research and analysis has been featured on National Public Radio, Wisconsin Public Radio, C-SPAN, and CNN.

 

 
 

Joe McChristian, Jr. serves as Founder and President The Van Fleet Foundation, with a mission to share the knowledge, wisdom and inspiration of General James Alward Van Fleet through the preservation of his archives, promotion of historical research, publication of relevant articles and books, and participation in compelling programs and events that celebrate and perpetuate his legacy. He is experienced in corporate start ups, turn-arounds of private manufacturing companies, and senior management of public corporations. He is also a decorated combat veteran, with Three Bronze Star Medals, the Air Medal, the Joint Service Commendation Medal, and the Army Commendation Medal.

 

 
 

Sam Rushay has worked at the National Archives and Records Administration for 32 years. He is the supervisory archivist at the Harry S. Truman Library and Museum in Independence, MO, where he worked as an archivist from 1993-1997. From 1997-2007, he was an archivist and subject matter expert at the Nixon Presidential Materials Staff at the National Archives in College Park, Maryland. Rushay has published articles about Richard Nixon and Harry Truman. A Columbus, Ohio, native, he earned a B.A. in U.S. History from Ohio State University and obtained a M.A. and Ph.D. in U.S. history from Ohio University. Rushay lives in Liberty, Missouri. 

 

 
 

Elli Kim is a historian of North Korea and a Korean studies specialist in the Asian Division at the Library of Congress. She received her Ph.D. in modern Korean history from the University of California, Los Angeles. She is currently completing her manuscript, Rituals of Decolonization: The Role of Inner-Migrant Intellectuals in North Korea, 1948–1967.

South Korea’s Dilemma: Autonomy vs. Dependency with Christian Davies

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The Korea Society is pleased to host Financial Times correspondent Christian Davies for a discussion on “Korea’s Dilemma: Autonomy vs. Dependency.” Drawing on his recent tenure as the Financial Times’ Seoul bureau chief covering both North and South Korea, Davies will explore how Seoul navigates the competing imperatives of deepening economic and security ties with the United States while seeking greater strategic autonomy to buffer against heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Expanding U.S-Korea trade and investment cooperation across semiconductors, shipbuilding, energy, and advanced manufacturing, offers significant opportunity but also heightened exposure to economic volatility. At the same time, Korea’s evolving security posture—including increased defense spending, advances in indigenous capabilities, and expanded alliance responsibilities—enables both greater contribution to the alliance and independence, raising fundamental questions about the alliance’s future trajectory. The discussion is moderated by policy director Jonathan Corrado.

This program was made possible by the generous support of the Korea Foundation and our individual and corporate members.

 

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New York, NY 10017

 

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About the Speaker:

 

Christian Davies is the FT’s US industry correspondent, covering autos, aerospace and American manufacturing. Based in New York, he is responsible for the FT’s coverage of Boeing, Ford and General Motors, as well as the leading US airlines. He was previously FT bureau chief in Seoul, covering South and North Korea, and before that was based in Warsaw, Poland.

 

Prospects for Relations with North Korea

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Program Brief

Prospects for Relations with North Korea

This program examined prospects for relations with North Korea, including US-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance coordination, inter-Korean relations, the impact of North Korea’s close relations with China and Russia, security concerns, and diplomatic opportunities.

North Korea’s Workers’ Party of Korea held its Ninth Party Congress in February. The Congress occurs approximately once every five years and results in the announcement of important policy priorities and goals for the future.

To unpack these developments, we assembled an expert panel with decades of experience working on and dealing directly with North Korea at the Korea Society in New York City. This timely discussion was moderated by Jonathan Corrado, Director of Policy Programs, The Korea Society.

This program was organized in collaboration with the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and The APEC Study Center at Columbia University.

Event Date: February 3, 2026

Host Organizations: The Korea Society, NCAFP, APEC Study Center at Columbia University

Panelists:

• Keith Luse, Executive Director of the National Committee on North Korea

• Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon

• Rachel Minyoung Lee, Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North

• Susan A. Thornton, Director of the Forum on Asia-Pacific Security at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy

• Moderated by Jonathan Corrado, Director of Policy Programs, The Korea Society

Program Podcast:

Part I: The Diagnosis

1. North Korea’s Foreign Policy Priorities ▶ [10:40]

Rachel Minyoung Lee outlined how Pyongyang’s priorities shifted dramatically following the Hanoi summit breakdown, the revitalized Moscow relationship, and reorientation toward the Eurasian orbit. The Ninth Party Congress, typically signaling major policy directions, will clarify Kim Jong Un’s strategic vision for the next five years.

2. U.S.-ROK Policy Coordination ▶ [14:16]

Susan Thornton evaluated alliance coordination, noting both Seoul and Washington have softened rhetoric by de-emphasizing “denuclearization” in recent policy documents. Despite improved atmospherics and South Korea’s “pacemaker” approach, North Korea has remained unwilling to engage diplomatically.

3. Deterrence Risks ▶ [35:24]

Ankit Panda identified major deterrence failure risks, emphasizing North Korea’s “extremely low threshold” for nuclear use. While North Korean forces gained battlefield experience in Ukraine—particularly in drone and electronic warfare—any Korean Peninsula conflict would likely escalate to nuclear within days rather than months.

4. Track 2 Diplomacy and Humanitarian Openings ▶ [39:21]

Keith Luse addressed limited prospects for Track 2 engagement. The divided families issue affecting 100,000 separated families remains urgent but faces obstacles, including U.S. passport restrictions and Pyongyang’s unwillingness to cooperate.

Part II: The Treatment Plan

5. Russia-North Korea Partnership ▶ [36:10]

Lee warned the expanding Russia-North Korea relationship opens doors to Belarus and Iran partnerships. Debris from Ukraine revealed export control gaps, with North Korean missiles containing Western components. Pyongyang remains determined to acquire cutting-edge technologies including advanced semiconductors.

6. Black Swan Scenarios ▶ [1:20:48]

Thornton suggested humanitarian crises could unexpectedly catalyze diplomatic engagement, citing the Otto Warmbier case’s impact during Trump’s first term. The panel acknowledged that while near-term breakthroughs seem unlikely, unexpected events could create openings.

7. Engaging North Korea’s Nuclear Reality ▶ [29:53]

Panda emphasized the need to accept North Korea as a nuclear-armed state and establish direct deterrence communication channels. The U.S. must decide whether to maintain a nuclear deterrence relationship “without any communication or direct engagement with our third nuclear adversary” or pursue stabilization through dialogue, as achieved with the Soviet Union and ongoing with China and Russia. This reframing moves beyond 1990s-era denuclearization goals toward practical risk reduction and crisis communication mechanisms.

8. People-to-People Engagement and Risk Reduction ▶ [28:24]

Luse advocated for maintaining people-to-people engagement opportunities between Americans and North Koreans, noting there is “no reason why we need to yield to Russia on impacting and interacting with the lives of the North Korean people.” Panelists emphasized that risk reduction requires addressing concerns on both sides—while the U.S. prioritizes crisis communications, North Korea seeks assurances on regime security and military exercises. Effective engagement demands willingness to discuss adversary priorities, not just American concerns.

This brief was generated using artificial intelligence technology and has been reviewed and edited by The Korea Society Policy Department for accuracy, context, and editorial standards. All content has been verified against the program transcript and source materials to ensure factual precision.

 

 

This program was made possible by the generous support of the Korea Foundation and our individual and corporate members.
 
 

 

Prospects for Relations with North Korea

Tuesday, February 3, 2026 | 6:30 PM (EST)


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About the Speakers:

 

Keith Luse is the Executive Director of the National Committee on North Korea. Previously, Luse was the Senior East Asia Policy Advisor for Chairman and later Ranking Member Senator Richard G. Lugar at the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2003 until 2013. Luse also served as Staff Director for Mr. Lugar at the Senate Agriculture Committee from 1999 through 2002, where the Senator also served as Chairman and later Ranking Member. While at the Senate Agriculture Committee, Luse made the first of eventually five trips to North Korea. In addition to assisting Senator Lugar at the Foreign Relations Committee on legislative initiatives, Luse directed or participated in several oversight projects and investigations. They included the integrity of the U.S. – funded humanitarian assistance distribution process inside North Korea; the murder of Americans in Papua, Indonesia; corruption and transparency challenges at The Asia Development Bank and The World Bank, and an evaluation of the effectiveness of U.S. foreign assistance to countries in East Asia with an emphasis on Cambodia and Indonesia. Luse has traveled extensively in East Asia including five visits to North Korea, and has participated in numerous Track 1.5 and Track 2 sessions about North Korea or with North Korean officials outside of their country. Luse’s Bachelor of Arts degree in political science is from Indiana University. His graduate certificate in public management and additional graduate studies were obtained at Indiana University – Purdue University, Indianapolis.

 

 

Rachel Minyoung Lee is a Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North. She is also co-chair of the North Korea Economic Forum, which is part of the policy program at the George Washington University’s Institute for Korean Studies (GWIKS). Lee was a North Korea collection expert and analyst with Open Source Enterprise (OSE; formerly known as Open Source Center) in the US government from 2000 to 2019. During that time, she wrote on the gamut of North Korean issues, from leadership, domestic politics and economy, and foreign policy, to social and cultural developments. As Analysis Team Lead, Lee led a team of collection officers and analysts to track and analyze North and South Korean issues with implications for Pyongyang’s regime stability and regional security. Most recently, from 2022 to early 2024, Lee headed engagement and network-building efforts at the Vienna-based Open Nuclear Network (ONN). In July 2025, she was a POSCO Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii. Lee earned her B.A. in English literature and her M.A. in international law, both at Korea University in Seoul.

 

 

Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research interests include nuclear strategy, escalation, missiles and missile defense, space security, and U.S. alliances. He is the author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon (Polity, 2025), Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Risks (Carnegie, 2023), and Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea (Hurst/Oxford, 2020). Panda is co-editor of New Approaches to Verifying and Monitoring North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal (Carnegie, 2021). Panda has consulted for the United Nations in New York and Geneva, and his analysis has been sought by U.S. Strategic Command, Space Command, and Indo-Pacific Command. Panda is among the most highly cited experts worldwide on North Korean nuclear capabilities. He has testified on matters related to South Korea and Japan before the congressionally chartered U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Panda has also testified before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. Before joining Carnegie, Panda was an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists and a journalist covering international security. Panda is a frequent expert commentator in print and broadcast media around the world on nuclear policy and defense matters. His work has appeared in or been featured by the New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Atlantic, the New Republic, the South China Morning Post, Politico, and the National Interest. Panda has also published in scholarly journals, including Survival, the Washington Quarterly, and India Review, and has contributed to the IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment and Strategic Survey. He is editor-at-large at the Diplomat, where he hosts the Asia Geopolitics podcast, and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks, where he hosts Thinking the Unthinkable With Ankit Panda, a podcast on nuclear matters.

 

 

Susan A. Thornton is the Director of the Forum on Asia-Pacific Security at the NCAFP, Visiting Lecturer in Law at Yale Law School and Senior Fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center. In 2018, she retired from the State Department after a 28-year diplomatic career focused primarily on East and Central Asia. In leadership roles in Washington, Thornton worked on China and Korea policy, including stabilizing relations with Taiwan, the U.S.-China Cyber Agreement, the Paris Climate Accord and led a successful negotiation in Pyongyang for monitoring of the Agreed Framework on denuclearization. In her 18 years of overseas postings in Central Asia, Russia, the Caucasus and China, Thornton’s leadership furthered U.S. interests and influence and maintained programs and mission morale in a host of difficult operating environments. Prior to joining the Foreign Service, she was among the first State Department Fascell Fellows and served from 1989–90 at the U.S. Consulate in Leningrad. She was also a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute from 1987–91. Thornton holds degrees from the National Defense University’s Eisenhower School, the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Bowdoin College. She speaks Russian, Mandarin Chinese and French, is a member of numerous professional associations and is on the Board of Trustees for the Eurasia Foundation.

South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Strategy

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Join us for a virtual program examining the geopolitical impact of South Korea’s development of nuclear submarines.

When Republic of Korea (ROK) President Lee Jae Myung hosted US President Donald Trump for a State Visit in Gyeongju, South Korea in October of last year, the allies committed to developing the maritime and nuclear relationship. A Fact Sheet published after the summit meeting describes that: “The United States has given approval for the ROK to build nuclear-powered attack submarines… [and] will work closely with the ROK to advance requirements for this shipbuilding project, including avenues to source fuel.”

Rather than focusing on the engineering processes and logistical challenges of shipbuilding cooperation, which you can learn about here, this discussion explores the strategic and geopolitical consequences of South Korea’s emergent nuclear submarine program. Against a backdrop of North Korea’s quickly evolving nuclear arsenal as well as revived interest in diplomatic engagement, this program investigates how nuclear submarines impact South Korea’s defensive capabilities and strategic posture, its contribution to and coordination with the US-ROK alliance, its regional role, and the balance of power and relations with North Korea.

The discussion features Dr. Sang Hyun Lee, Fellow Emeritus of the Sejong Institute, and Dr. James R. Holmes, J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, and Minkyung Jung, Staff Reporter for The Korea Herald, in conversation with policy director Jonathan Corrado.

This program is made possible by the generous support of the Korea Foundation and our individual and corporate members.

 

South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Strategy

Wednesday, January 28, 2026 | 8 AM (EST)

 

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About the Speakers:

 
 

Dr. Sang Hyun Lee is currently Fellow Emeritus of the Sejong Institute, board member of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management-Korea (INMM-K), and board member of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament. He served as President of the Sejong Institute (2021~2024), researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Director-General for Policy Planning at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a guest researcher at the Stockholm Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) in Sweden, and a visiting researcher at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. He received his B.A. and M.A. from Seoul National University and Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 1999.

 

 
 

James Holmes is a professor of strategy, the inaugural holder of the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy, a visiting professor in the Fleet Seminar Program, and a two-time visiting professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College. He is a recipient of the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Medal honoring his research and writing. He previously served on the faculty of the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs, Center for International Trade and Security, where he remains a Faculty Fellow. He is a Distinguished Fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation & Future Warfare, Marine Corps University. A former U.S. Navy surface-warfare officer and combat veteran of the first Gulf War, he served as a weapons and engineering officer in the battleship Wisconsin, engineering and firefighting instructor at the Surface Warfare Officers School Command, and military professor of strategy at the Naval War College. He is the last gunnery officer in history to fire a battleship’s big guns in anger.

 
 

Minkyung Jung is Staff Reporter for South Korea’s English-language newspaper The Korea Herald currently covering politics, defense, and North Korea-related news from South Korea’s Ministry of Defense and the Foreign Ministry. This includes South Korea’s security and defense issues, North Korea’s military and political developments, inter-Korean relations, alliance coordination, and security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula. -From 2017-2018, she covered North Korea news during a period of thaw in inter-Korean relations, including the third inter-Korean summit held in 2018 from the official press center in Seoul. She visited North Korea’s resort town of Mount Kumgang as part of the Ministry of Unification’s joint press team in Aug. 2018 to cover the reunion of families separated by the Korean War. She received a Bachelors in English Language & Linguistics from Sogang University.

ROK Prime Minister’s Luncheon with President Abraham Kim and Korean Leaders in New York

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ROK Prime Minister's Luncheon with President Abraham Kim and Korean Leaders in New York

ROK Prime Minister's Luncheon with President Abraham Kim and Korean Leaders in New York
Photo credit: Office for Government Policy Coordination, Prime Minister’s Secretariat | 

On January 24, 2026, The Korea Society President and CEO Abraham Kim (second from right) attended a luncheon with Prime Minister Kim Min-seok of the Republic of Korea in downtown Manhattan, alongside a select group of Korean American leaders. Attendees included New York State Assemblyman Ron Kim, New York State Assemblywoman Grace Lee, Mayor Chong Paul Kim of Palisades Park, New Jersey, and Mayor Mark Park of Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. The private gathering took place during Prime Minister Kim’s historic U.S. visit—the first standalone visit by a South Korean premier in more than four decades—highlighting a renewed commitment to alliance stewardship and people-to-people diplomacy.

Prime Minister Kim emphasized that the current moment presents a pivotal opportunity to deepen U.S.–Korea cooperation across policy, economic, security, and cultural domains. He underscored the strategic importance of Korean American leadership in bridging the two societies and reaffirmed his commitment to sustained, high-level engagement to address bilateral issues in real time.

Dr. Abraham Kim participated as the only non-elected Korean American leader at the table, contributing actively both as a national Korean American civic leader and as the newly appointed President and CEO of The Korea Society. He highlighted the Society’s mission, cross-sector outreach, and longstanding role as a national platform connecting policymakers, business leaders, scholars, and civic actors engaged on Korea issues.

The luncheon reflected a shared belief that a stronger, more resilient U.S.–Korea alliance depends not only on government-to-government ties, but also on empowered community leadership and trusted networks sharing a common vision for a healthy bilateral alliance.